Violence... The story so far

This page distills much of our findings in a security context. Our findings depart substantially from actual US National Security policy.


Aside from the fact that cultures are now at war and al Qa'ida is moving back into Afghanistan, our national security still has both tactical and strategic holes, some of them huge. To be sure, air travel now provides much higher protection from individual terrorists being able to board and hijack a commercial airplane. That was a logical and necessary result. For air travel , we can certainly say, "Fair job so far." Except for one thing. Surface to air missiles make departing and landing commercial aircraft vulnerable. Many airports have recognized this danger, but how many have done anything to improve security to the required perimeter? Then again, how many can? Has Homeland Security reduced the danger from truck or car bombs? Are our bridges and subways as secure as our airplanes?

For Immigration, where significant tactical changes have been made, we may be shooting ourselves in the foot. The purpose of course is to prevent entry by terrorists, the like of Mohammed Atta. But have we really kept them out? We will not know until the next bombs fall. Meanwhile, we have closed our doors to the very people who made this country great--the creative and energetic citizens of the third world. This may prove to be a strategic mistake.

However, thinking further about the tactics of security in general, our ocean ports of entry have not had anything like the attention given to air travel. Since there is little in al Qa'ida history to suggest that it would repeat a major aircraft hijacking in the face of such obstacles, we are concerned that we may have put too much emphasis in the wrong place.

It is more likely that al Qa'ida will probe the United States for other weaknesses before deciding on the "best" means of creating mass destruction they are capable of. Our ports (and shores) remain vulnerable to importing chemical, bio, nuclear agents and even terrorists. Terrorists involved in such an attack could not only keep a low profile, but work essentially without accomplices of any sort. They could coordinate, as they have shown they can, and attack several targets at once.

Of the hazards, the gas to expect is VX as it is a hundred-fold more effective than its counterparts. Bio agents are less likely; the most dangerous might be Smallpox, but steps are progressing against such highly unlikely attacks. We expect bio- and chemical-terrorists alike would live and act another day.

A coordinated nuclear-weapon attack is, of course, the worst scenario of all. While unlikely, it too is at least possible given all the leaks out of Pakistan and North Korea that were not picked up by Washington. Nuclear terror is nevertheless possible since sensors cannot cover every mile of shoreline or border, even if they do cover all ports of entry to some degree.

The key words in all the above is "unlikely." However, add enough "unlikely events" together and they become likely, even inevitable. America's present course virtually assures that another time of terror on American soil will come. On the other hand, al Qa'ida, might well view Bush's excursion into Iraq as a great favor to them, and therefore might, in high irony, leave us alone for a time while they chip away at our allies. Whatever that situation, if al Qa'ida has learned anything from our responses so far, and we think they have, the time for the next event(s) will be set independently of any US intelligence intercepts of "chatter."

The Neocon philosophy embraces the need for periodic war, as in Iraq, to keep our nation strong militarily; it misses the decentralized, religious, and psychological dimensions of modern terrorism. Big guns are essentially worthless in such an arena without boundaries. To be sure we need to arm ourselves against attack. But if all we do is chase phantoms with big guns, we shall surely fail our grandchildren.

With this background we have posted our national security policy (from the public domain) in three parts I, II, III. Policies that drive the failed tactics such as in Iraq can be found there.

Contrast that policy with the below.

It seems that al Qa'ida and their extremist allies and the non-Muslim world (The US in particular) are locked in a death struggle. Achieving their extinction tactically requires surgery with a fine touch--society building and local police actions with a lot of patience.

Indeed, what real progress has been made against al Qa'ida was mostly by national police actions in Europe and the far East. Predator drones have also had some effectiveness, but they hardly need an army, navy and air force to operate. In fact the CIA operates them as part of their police arsenal.

But even these are not sufficient. You can trim the shrubs, but until you eliminate their roots, they will keep coming back for more trimming. War and terrorism will recur as long as their causative conditions persist. Tactical responses only gain another day; they do not cure the basic problem.

A coherent strategy to address the root problems seems mandatory toward reducing and eventually eliminating the causes of intercultural warfare.

Elsewhere on this site, we believe we have identified some basic Causes and Solutions. We summarize some identifiable causes:

Humankind has a genetic tendency toward Authoritarianism that can be enhanced or diminished by cultural environment; in the Middle East, it is enhanced by the very authoritarianism of the religion that is Islam.

Fundamentalism that encourages authoritarian thinking and behavior, strong on both sides, but more prominent in Islam. Fundamentalism is at odds with Natural History as well as democratic secular societies.

Alienation which can radicalize an individual or small group.

Humiliation which can radicalize individuals, groups and nations.

Ageless disputes over "sacred ground" (a problem with monotheism) too often lead to Violence.

Any solution that is effective must be multi-faceted in the sense that a number of things must happen in our society:

Nurture children so that they develop internal Loci of Control.

Educate children such that they learn how to think for themselves with insight, how to derive answers and directions from available data and situations.

Engage the public in researching the basic causes of terror; why is the US the most violent of the civilized nations; why Washington is the murder capital of the industrialized world; why Honolulu and El Paso are so much safer than Washington DC; why the Eastern religions are so much more peaceful than their Western counterparts.

Establish dialogues with the monotheisms, enlisting their help, as the public helps them, in reducing the causes that lead to radicalization of the young.

Look objectively at our culture for clues in what it is that supports continuing violence on our streets.

Do the same with our economic and political systems.

Above all, begin each search with a look in the mirror.

Islam provides fertile ground for the Authoritarian Personality to develop while enabling Fundamentalism. Western imperialism (authoritarian in mode) has left a bad taste in the collective Muslim minds. Israel is still carrying the torch for subjugating and humiliating the Palestinians. Neo-imperialism [economic and political] does likewise. And so are our soldiers with their mere presence in Iraq. We must remember, Jews and Muslims alike believe certain grounds are sacred; Jerusalem is a focal case in point in Palestine.

An effective response in the tactical arena seems to be:

Stamp out terror cells by concerted worldwide police actions that include electronic surveillance and predator missile actions.

This one, of course, requires close mutual cooperation among all nations of the world. It might not even require a temporary and partial abridgment of our rights to privacy.

Cures that are promising on the strategic level include:

Ethnic integration in all facets of society, and by extension, the national integration of the world society. The goal here is to check the radicalization of today's youth.

Reduce the economic and achievement gaps among nations. The goals here are the same as above.

Strengthen the United Nations; enable it to effectively monitor and control all things Nuclear. Without this, civilization itself remains at risk.

Foreclose imperialism in any direct or indirect form. The goal here is to dampen humiliation on the national scale.

Support moderates seeking religious reconciliations. After all, it is the extremists in all three monotheisms that drive their strong correlation with violence.

Firmly separate Church and State. To do otherwise is to invite the continuance of the fight over whose God is GOD.

Work toward World Reformation that recognizes the Jeffersonian principle that all people are born equal in the eyes of opportunity and freedom. The aim here of course is to remove humiliation and alienation from the human experience as items 1,2 and 4 also do.

All this will not be easy, nor will it happen in less than a generation, much less a presidential administration.

For example, a nuclear solution will require the UN and all nations to:

Reform international Governance sufficiently to remove the Nuclear Threat. See also: Handling Things Nuclear.

Install secular governance compatible with religious needs of all citizens.

There are many other points that might be added to these, but we believe these are fundamental.

Conclusions

Our National Security policy is merely a reaction where pro-action is needed. Our national security policy ( I, II, III) does not address the reality inherent in the above findings, nor does it even suggest looking for the roots of terrorism; it is concerned only with trimming the leaves.

While that is a lot better than nothing and satisfies the need to do something, it misses the deeper issues of where to find a permanent fix and how to implement it.

Ethnic integration reducing the economic and achievement gaps, strengthening the United Nations; foreclosing imperialism as national policy while firmly separating Church and State, and working toward the Jeffersonian principle that all people are born equal in the eyes of opportunity and freedom seems like a much improved strategy over the Neocon tactics of trimming trees that now passes for strategy.

Implementation can be expected to take at least a generation, perhaps most of the 21st Century. It is high time to get on with it. It is our humanity that must catch up with our technology, even as the latter races forward gathering steam. For more on that, see: Nuclear Counter Terror.

And the US is still in a primary position to lead such a thrust. But we fear Bush, given another term with a senate majority might establish an irreversible trend that will end democracy as we know it in America. Mr Kerry, as brave and sensible as he is, seems not to be aware of the fundamental issues of our times. He is nevertheless the better choice in moving forward from here.