Violence... The story so far

Wide gaps in military spending exist among the cultures now in conflict. The Axis of Evil hardly appears on the radar screen. With a 57-fold "defense-spending" multiple over "The Axis of Evil", the US has nothing to fear militarily.

The possibility of Nuclear Terror changes the formula considerably, of course. The solution to terrorism lies in recognizing the psychology of Humiliation and Alienation and fixing those conditions.

The Administration is not aiming in that direction. It is pursuing the historic solution of war, when a cooperative world-wide police action is required. This lack of planning, leadership and wisdom will be the Bush legacy and the American albatross for the foreseeable future. This administration is using the same formula that felled the Johnson Adminstration in Vietnam.

Folly wears many stripes and appears again and again in history. Arrogance and ignorance are operating in Iraq as they did during Vietnam. So goes the rhythm of history, unlearned from, uncontrolled, battering the shores of humanity once more. The chart below (2005) can knock the limbs off any tree and blast away any trunk--while leaving the roots of terror unscathed.

Country	Military Budget % of world
United States	45.7
China	5.5
Btitain	3.9
France	3.6
Japan	3.6
Russia	3.3
Saudi Arabia	2.9
Germany	2.7
India	2.3
Brazil	2.3

This is still a gross imbalance. But China is coming on strong. The cost of war does not appear in the table. But it does in our current accounts, and that is the danger. The so-called cliff, more political than real, mostly highlights the ease with which American opinion can be molded. But there will be a cliff out there eventually. Out of shear necessity, we must change our ways, and the sooner the better.

The history of China is not one of conquest. The Chinese people, as they always have, will go to any length to defend themselves. Visit he Great Wall and see for yourself. Such a project would be a huge undertaking even in our mechanized era. Think about the effort back when only people and animals provided all the power. In that sense, the danger of China going imperial looks small. However, there are some possible downsides.

• China may change politically.
• More likely, the world could change China politically.
• Trends in place today could give China parity in military spending in a decade or two, perhaps sooner if the Chinese economy returns to its earlier form.
• China is fast catching up with modern warfare techniques and force projections that now include Taiwan.
• Unforeseen events could drive China either way.

Whatever that situation, the Bush Doctrine and the Neocon Agenda both played into the Chinese agenda, whether or not expansionism is an issue. Obama has made course corrections that were absolutely necessary. He has fundamentally changed our response to terror, though it is still much too early to forecast a final outcome. Day by day, it is becoming clearer that war is not the right response to terrorism. Terrorism is a problem that is symptomatic of deeper problems better dealt with elsewhere (Origins of Violence) on this website.

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